Nearly one employee in four is aged 55 or older
In 2010, Statistics Canada data found that the Canadian labour force numbered about 18.5 million people. The force is projected to grow to between 20.5 million and 22.5 million by 2031. However, labour force growth rate is slowing – and expected to continue to slow – due to the retirement of Canadian Baby Boomers.
“As the growth of the labour force loses momentum, the population of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to grow increasingly rapidly as a result of population aging and the entry of the baby boomers into this age range,” said Statistics Canada. Consequently, the participation rate – that is the percentage of the total population over the age of 15 in the labour force – is projected to decline.
“In 2010, the participation rate was 67.0 percent; by 2031, it is projected to range between 59.7 percent and 62.6 percent, which would be the lowest observed since the late 1970s,” said the agency in a statement.
“The projected decline in the overall participation rate over the next two decades would be largely attributable to demographic phenomena, such as the aging of the baby-boom cohorts, increasing life expectancy and a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.”
The aging of Baby Boomers, the first of which turned 65 this year, are largely behind the projected decline in participation rate, yet it is that demographic that has had a major impact on the Canadian labour force.
“Between 1971 and 1976, when the large baby-boom cohorts were entering the labour market, the labour force increased at an average rate of just over 4 percent a year,” Statistics Canada said. This growth rate slowed to about 1.4 percent between 2006 and 2010. By 2016, growth is projected to be less than 1 percent on average in all scenarios. Projections show it could slow even further to between 0.2 percent and 0.7 percent in the period from 2021 to 2026.
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