Manitoba flood forecasters see new worries south of the border along Red River
Communities along the Red River in North Dakota will almost certainly face flooding this spring, the U.S. National Weather Service warned.
But Manitoba government officials were not ready to adopt a dire outlook, and cautioned that what happens in North Dakota doesn’t always have the same impact downstream in Canada.
“A major flood in Fargo does not necessarily translate into a large flood in Manitoba,” Steve Topping, head of operational services with Manitoba Water Stewardship, said from Fargo, N.D.
“We certainly are aware that soil moisture conditions at freeze-up were very high, both in the United States portion and the Manitoba portion of the Red River Basin … (but) the Fargo area definitely has more snow than Manitoba has at this time.”
Topping was in Fargo for an annual meeting of the Red River Basin Commission, an organization of municipal leaders and environment groups on both sides of the border.
Manitoba faces a “very high” flood potential this spring, due to a very wet summer and fall last year that has left the ground saturated, Topping said.
But, he added, much will depend on how quickly the snow melts in April, and how much more snow and rain Manitoba receives in the interim.
Residents of the Red River Valley are used to turning their minds to potential flooding at this time of year. The flat, shallow valley has clay soil that retains water, and the river flows northward, which means rising meltwater from the south can run up against solid ice near the river’s mouth north of Winnipeg.
But Manitoba has increased its flood-fighting measures in recent years, to the point where most homes and businesses are virtually flood-proof. Most years, floods cover farmland and roads but people remain dry.
The province has purchased amphibious ice-breaking vehicles and added to its small army of backhoes that can smash ice from the shoreline. Towns such as St. Jean Baptiste and Morris have improved their earthen dikes.
The Red River Floodway, a 47-kilometres-long ditch that diverts water around Winnipeg, has been expanded to protect the city from a near-Biblical level of flooding that experts say happens once every 700 years. The floodway is the envy of North Dakota cities such as Fargo and Grand Forks.
Areas south of Winnipeg are perhaps the safest. After the so-called flood of the century in 1997, homes and businesses were raised or moved so that they cannot flood unless the water is 60 centimetres higher than 1997 levels.
So even if the flood is as bad as 1997 – and at this point no one is saying it will be – most people are expected to remain dry. The water may swamp farmland and cover roads including the main highway between Winnipeg and the U.S. border, but most people would be safe.
The big question mark every year is ice jams. In 2009, ice jams north of Winnipeg sent huge chunks into homes and caused flash flooding in some riverfront areas. Since then, residents of the most flood-prone areas north of Winnipeg have been bought out and relocated away from the riverbank.
Topping plans to release a preliminary flood outlook for the province and then update it in March.
