The Japanese government’s worst-case scenario at the height of the nuclear crisis last year warned that tens of millions of people, including Tokyo residents, might need to leave their homes, according to a report obtained by The Associated Press. But fearing widespread panic, officials kept the report secret.

The recent emergence of the 15-page internal document may add to complaints in Japan that the government withheld too much information about the world’s worst nuclear accident since Chornobyl.

It also casts doubt about whether the government was sufficiently prepared to cope with what could have been an evacuation of unprecedented scale.

The report was submitted to then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his top advisers on March 25, two weeks after the earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, causing three reactors to melt down and generating hydrogen explosions that blew away protective structures.

Workers ultimately were able to bring the reactors under control, but at the time, it was unclear whether emergency measures would succeed. Kan commissioned the report, compiled by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, to examine what options the government had if those efforts failed.

Authorities evacuated 59,000 residents within 20 kilometres (12 miles) of the Fukushima plant, with thousands more were evacuated from other towns later. The report said there was a chance far larger evacuations could be needed.

The report looked at several ways the crisis could escalate – explosions inside the reactors, complete meltdowns, and the structural failure of cooling pools used for spent nuclear fuel.

It said that each contingency was possible at the time it was written, and could force all workers to flee the vicinity, meaning the situation at the plant would unfold on its own, unmitigated.

Using matter-of-fact language, diagrams and charts, the report said that if meltdowns spiral out of control, radiation levels could soar.

In that case, it said evacuation orders should be issued for residents within and possibly beyond a 170-kilometre (105 mile) radius of the plant and “voluntary” evacuations should be offered for everyone living within 250 kilometres (155 miles) and even beyond that range.

That’s an area that would have included Tokyo and its suburbs, with a population of 35 million people, and other major cities such as Sendai, with a million people, and Fukushima city with 290,000 people.

The report further warned that contaminated areas might not be safe for “several decades.”

“We cannot rule out further developments that may lead to an unpredictable situation at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, where there has been an accident, and this report outlines a summary of that unpredictable situation,” says the document, written by Shunsuke Kondo, head of the commission, which oversees nuclear policy.

After Kan received the report, he and other Japanese officials publicly insisted that there was no need to prepare for wider-scale evacuations.

Rumours of the report emerged this month after an outside panel was created to investigate possible coverups. Kyodo News agency first reported on the contents of the document on Saturday.

The government continues to refuse to make the document public. The AP obtained it Wednesday through a government source, who insisted on anonymity because the document was still categorized as internal.

Goshi Hosono, the Cabinet minister in charge of the nuclear crisis, implicitly acknowledged the document’s existence earlier this month, but said the government had felt no need to make it public.

“It was a scenario based on hypothesis, and even in the event of such a development, we were told that residents would have enough time to evacuate,” Hosono said.

“We were concerned about the possibility of causing excessive and unnecessary worry if we went ahead and made it public,” he said. “That’s why we decided not to disclose it.”

A Japanese government nuclear policy official, Masato Nakamura, said Wednesday that he stood behind Hosono’s decisions on the document.

“It was all his decisions,” he said. “We do not disclose all administrative documents.”

Japanese authorities and regulators have been repeatedly criticized for how they have handled information amid the unfolding nuclear crisis. Officials initially denied that the reactors had melted down, and have been accused of playing down the health risks of exposure to radiation.

In another example, a radiation warning system known as SPEEDI had identified high-risk areas where thousands of people were continuing to live while the reactors were in critical condition. Officials did not use that data to order evacuations; they have since said it was not accurate enough.

The outside panel investigating the government response to the nuclear crisis has been critical, calling for more transparency in relaying information to the public.

“Risk communication during the disaster cannot be said to have been proper at all,” it said in its interim report last month.

You might also be interested in: Japan earthquake survivor shares his tale 

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Swiss Re’s sigma team said that 2011 would have been the costliest year ever for the insurance industry if Japan had been more fully insured. Regardless, catastrophes cost the global economy a record $350 billion last year and the insurer says seismic events alone caused economic losses of over $276 billion.

Still, despite the earthquake risk around the world, earthquake-prone countries remain underinsured, Swiss Re says.

Lucia Bevere, Senior Catastrophe Data Analyst at Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and co-author of the “Lessons from recent major earthquakes publication”, says: “The insurance industry is playing a key role in post-disaster financing of the countries affected. While insurance cannot replace lost lives and livelihoods, appropriate insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms can greatly accelerate the recovery process.” However, the insurance industry’s contribution to the reconstruction effort differs dramatically from country to country.

The insurance industry will pay an estimated 80% of the overall cost of the February 2011 earthquake in New Zealand, but no more than 17% for the disastrous event in Japan in March 2011. Earthquake insurance penetration, in fact, is highest in New Zealand, and is very low in Japan, particularly for commercial properties.

Recent major earthquake events; data from Swiss Re

Overall, earthquake insurance coverage is still quite low, even in some industrialized countries with high seismic risk. Low insurance penetration attests to a population’s low perception of risk. Bevere adds: “The low frequency of earthquake events, compared to other natural catastrophes, tends to shape the perception that earthquake risk is much lower than it actually is, even in places where there have been very deadly and damaging occurrences, like California.” Without insurance coverage, post-disaster reparations come from government funds and ultimately must be borne by taxpayers.

Insurance penetration, premiums as percentage of GDP; Data from Swiss Re

For underwriting as well, there are key lessons to be learnt from the recent earthquakes. Although earthquake models are quite accurate in predicting the immediate physical damage caused by tremors, Balz Grollimund, Head of Earthquake Perils at Swiss Re and co-author of the study, points out: “Secondary loss factors, such as liquefaction and particularly business interruption, add to the complexity of claims assessments for major earthquakes. These factors should be considered more comprehensively in earthquake models.”

The full report can be read online. (PDF)

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The Canadian government is expressing disappointment over Haiti’s plodding reconstruction two years after a powerful earthquake slammed the fragile island nation.

But that doesn’t mean the Caribbean country hasn’t shown signs of progress amid the debris, International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda added before she left for Haiti ahead of the second anniversary of the Jan. 12, 2010 temblor.

The 7.0-magnitude quake killed more than 200,000 people, injured 300,000 and left 1.5 million Haitians homeless.

“Generally, I think we’re all disappointed at the rate of progress, that we had expectations (that) have not been met,” Oda said in a recent interview.

“(We’re) disappointed that so many situations have caused delay. Would I have liked to have seen more progress two years later? Absolutely, yes.”

Oda blamed much of Haiti’s hobbled reconstruction on hurdles that surfaced after the quake, including a paralyzing, months-long political crisis and an ongoing cholera epidemic that had struck 520,000 people and killed 7,000 by mid-December.

One example of the slower progress, she said, are the tarps and rickety shelters in numerous displacement camps that popped up in areas hit hardest by the quake, including the capital Port-au-Prince.

Oda had hoped that conditions would have improved enough to enable more homeless Haitians to vacate those tent camps by now.

Today, some 500,000 people still live in the squalor and dangers of the encampments – a figure that does represent some improvement. One million were living in tents last year, on the first anniversary of the earthquake.

With the help of billions of dollars in international aid, the country has taken modest strides forward over the last 24 months.

About half the rubble from the disaster – a mind-boggling five million cubic metres, or enough to fill five football stadiums – has been removed. Twenty per cent of it has been recycled, according to the United Nations Development Programme.

UNDP associate administrator Rebeca Grynspan said the massive cleanup was a big part of some 300,000 temporary jobs created in Haiti, where the unemployment rate hovers around 60 per cent.

She called it the “largest job-creation program in the world.” The organization is now focusing on creating longer-term employment.

Canada has committed more than $1 billion to Haiti through its regular foreign development initiatives, one-third of which had already been promised before the earthquake. The final total includes Ottawa’s $220-million pledge to match the private donations from ordinary Canadians after the disaster.

Only Afghanistan ($214 million) received more Canadian International Development Agency funding than Haiti ($209 million) for long-term development and reconstruction during the 2010-2011 fiscal period.

“I think that we have to recognize that there has been progress and some key progress has been made,” Oda said.

But a Canadian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ottawa should use more of its clout to combat endemic corruption within Haiti’s political system.

“I think that Canada could, in concert with the U.S. and other donors, take a harder stance and tougher wake-up call positions to the government of Haiti,” the influential official said.

“I think that we pander to them a little bit more than we have to.”

Instead of creating sustainability and economic development in Haiti, the source said the international community continues to foster dependency.

The official credited Canada for undertaking projects in good faith, such as building a new hospital, improving road infrastructure, training police and providing hundreds of thousands of meals to kids every day.

“The problem is just the Haitian context makes it extremely challenging to see progress in a really tangible way or very quickly,” said the official, who believes Canadian donations are still making a difference.

“For that, I think people just need to be patient.”

But one area where CIDA should reassess efforts is within its “capacity-building” programs, designed to strengthen Haiti’s government departments, he said.

The weak Haitian state remains just too corrupt, the key official added.

“There are some good people right at the top, but once you skim the surface of the Haitian public service there is no one below it, there’s no direction, there’s no capacity to build,” said the source, who suggested that more funding be redirected to address basic human needs.

The official asked how, with hundreds of millions of dollars pouring in from around the world, most Haitians still don’t have easy access to clean drinking water or dehydration salts, for those suffering from cholera.

For her part, Oda said shoring up Haiti’s government ministries, by introducing tools like budget procedures, will help address corruption concerns.

CIDA, she said, already has one of the most rigorous processes of any similar development agency to ensure money is actually being spent where it’s supposed to be.

It has also managed to get more money out the door, more quickly, than some of its peers, Oda said. To date, the UNDP says $3.5 billion of $5 billion in international pledges has been disbursed.

Oda said Canada has already transferred around 90 per cent of its pledged funds, giving it one of the best disbursement rates of any donor. By comparison, the U.S. had only disbursed around 58 per cent of its pledge by December, according to the UN.

During her visit to Haiti this week, Oda has planned a series of meetings with President Michel Martelly, Prime Minister Garry Conille and ministers of Haiti’s new government.

She is scheduled to hold a joint news conference Wednesday with Martelly, a popular musician known as “Sweet Micky” who came to power in May following months of political chaos created by election fraud.

Conille took office last fall following five months of political deadlock in the Senate, after lawmakers rejected Martelly’s two previous nominees for prime minister.

The absence of a fully functioning government had hindered Martelly’s ability to govern _ a delay that also slowed post-quake reconstruction.

“We now have to look forward on a going-forward basis and say, ‘We have a new president, new prime minister, new government and the Haitian government has indicated that they want to take on more of the responsibility of reconstruction themselves,’” Oda said.

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A sequence of devastating earthquakes and a large number of weather-related catastrophes made 2011 the costliest year ever in terms of natural catastrophe losses.

Munich Re figures show that at about US$ 380 billion, global economic losses were nearly two-thirds higher than in 2005, the previous record year with losses of US$ 220 billion. The earthquakes in Japan in March and New Zealand in February alone caused almost two-thirds of these losses. Insured losses of US$ 105 billion also exceeded the 2005 record of US$ 101 billion.

Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re Board member responsible for global reinsurance business: “Thankfully, a sequence of severe natural catastrophes like last year’s is a very rare occurrence. We had to contend with events with return periods of once every 1,000 years or even higher at the locations concerned. But we are prepared for such extreme situations. It is the insurance industry’s task to cover extreme losses as well, to help society cope with such events and to learn from them in order to protect mankind better from these natural perils.”

There were 820 loss-relevant events in 2011, which is in line with the average of the last ten years, Munich Re said. Most – 90 percent – of the natural disasters were weather-related, but two-thirds of economic losses and about half of the insured losses were from geophysical events, principally from the large earthquakes.  Munich Re says this was a key difference in the 2011 loss results.

“Normally, it is the weather-related natural catastrophes that are the dominant loss drivers. On average over the last three decades, geophysical events accounted for just under 10 percent of insured losses. The distribution of regional losses in 2011 was also unusual. Around 70 percent of economic losses in 2011 occurred in Asia,” the company wrote in a statement.

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Officials said Saturday they believe the latest earthquake activity in northeast Ohio is related to the injection of wastewater into the ground near a fault line, creating enough pressure to cause seismic activity.

The brine wastewater comes from drilling operations that use the so-called fracking process to extract gas from underground shale. But Ohio Department of Natural Resources Director Jim Zehringer said during a news teleconference that fracking is not causing the quakes.

“The seismic events are not a direct result of fracking,” he said.

Environmentalists and property owners who live near gas drilling wells have questioned the safety of fracking to the environment and public health. Federal regulators have declared the technology safe, however.

Zehringer said four injection wells within a five-mile radius of an already shuttered well in Youngstown will remain inactive while further scientific research is conducted.

A 4.0 magnitude quake Saturday afternoon in McDonald, outside of Youngstown, was the 11th in a series of minor earthquakes in area, many of which have struck near the Youngstown injection well. The quake caused no serious injuries or property damage, Zehringer said.

Thousands of gallons of brine were injected into the well daily until its owner, Northstar Disposal Services LLC, agreed Friday to stop injecting brine into the earth as a precaution while authorities assess any potential links to the quakes.

Michael Hansen of the Ohio Seismic Network said Saturday that more quakes are possible, most likely small ones, until the pressure at the fault line has been completely relieved.

The temblor Saturday appeared to be stronger than others, which generally had a magnitude of 2.7 or lower. Some residents reported feeling trembling farther south into Columbiana County and east into western Pennsylvania.

Area residents said a loud boom accompanied the shaking. It sent some stunned residents running for cover as bookshelves shook and pictures and lamps fell from tables.

A few miles from the epicenter, Charles Kihm said he was preparing food in his kitchen when he heard a noise and thought a vehicle had hit his Austintown home.

“It really shook, and it rumbled, like there was a sound,” said Kihm, 82. “It was loud. It didn’t last long. But it really scared me.”

There are 177 similar injection wells around the state, and the Youngstown-area well has been the only site with seismic activity, the department said. Zehringer said that to shut down all of the wells because of seismic activity near one would be an overreaction.

Patti Gorcheff, who lives about 15 miles from the epicenter, said her dogs started barking inexplicably Saturday and the ornaments on her Christmas tree began to shake. Her husband thought he heard the sound of some sort of blast.

“This is the biggest one we’ve had so far,” said Gorcheff, a North Lima resident who has raised concerns about quakes and drilling-related activity in the region. “I hope this is a wake-up call.”

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What a year it was. Severe weather events and natural disasters caused havoc across the world. According to Swiss Re, catastrophes cost the global economy a record $350 billion in 2011. In Canada, this year was the second-most expensive year for weather losses. Hardly a province or territory was spared this year. Environment Canada says that moving from West to East, British Columbia fared best while Prairie residents faced record floods, fires and furies. Eastern Canada also got more than its share of bad weather throughout a wild year of twisters, hurricanes, floods and big blows.

Environment Canada has released its list of the country’s top 10 weather stories of 2011, as follows: (Click on the title to read more from Environment Canada about each event)

1. Historic Flood Fights in the West

Known as the flood that would never end and the spring flood that became the summer flood; the 2011 Prairie flooding featured the highest water levels and flows in modern history across parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.- Prairies

2. Slave Lake Burning

Perfect fire conditions were in place last May, so when a fire started, the blaze, aided by 100 km/h winds, spread quickly. One-third of the homes and businesses in Slave Lake (about 400 structures) were incinerated in the 1000°C heat –  reduced to burnt concrete, twisted steel and blackened rubble. – Slave Lake, Alberta

3. Richelieu Flooding – Quebec’s Longest-Lived Disaster

The Richelieu flood was arguably the worst overland flooding in southern Quebec this century. Hundreds of roads were damaged, parts of the shoreline were swept away, and thousands of hectares of farmland were submerged. Fish swam where grain should have been growing. – Southern Quebec

4. Down on the Farm: Doom to Boom

Farmers across the country faced prolonged flooding; but weather fortunes changed for many late in the season. In the end, wavering weather created a multitude of outcomes ranging from doom to boom depending on the crop and location. -Across Canada

5. Tornado Goderich in a Wild Week of Weather

After a relatively quiet summer, a wild week of weather hit Ontario, starting with Goderich on August 21^st.  In less than two minutes, a tornado ripped through the picturesque community, with unbelievable damage; killing one person and injuring forty others.  Only three days later, dark clouds and lightning rolled in and another three tornados occurred across Ontario. – Ontario

6. Good Night, Irene…and, Katia, Maria and Ophelia

From Arlene to Sean, 19 tropical storms formed in the Atlantic basin – well above the long-term average of 11. Only six became full-blown hurricanes, with three logged as major at Category 3 or higher: Irene, Katia and Ophelia. The busy storm season reflected a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.- Atlantic

7. Summer: Hummer or Bummer?

On the first day of summer, temperatures were on the rise from Saskatchewan to Quebec, blanketing millions of Canadians in warmth and sunshine. But, for those on the west and east coasts it was a different story altogether as they endured cool temperatures, endless rain and overcast or foggy skies. – Across Canada

8. Arctic Sea Ice near Record Low

According to Environment Canada and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado, sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean declined to its second-lowest extent on record in September 2011. The near-record ice melt was surprising owing to the absence of the unusual warm weather and oceanic conditions that contributed to the super melt in 2007.
- Arctic

9. Groundhog Day Storm: Snowmageddon or Snowbigdeal?

During the last week of January, meteorologists warned of a storm that could affect 100 million people from New Mexico to Newfoundland. For portions of southern Ontario the storm had more bark than bite. But, blizzard conditions did take hold from Lake Huron to Niagara, and; over Quebec and the Maritimes, the storm lasted two days depositing between 20 and 50 cm of snow. – Ontario, Quebec, Maritimes

10. Wicked Winds from the West

Southern Alberta is one of the windiest regions in Canada. During the last week of November, some of the most powerful winds ever recorded in the area ripped across southern Alberta, including Calgary, inflicting millions of dollars in property damages.- Southern Alberta

The Top Canadian Weather Stories for 2011 are rated from one to 10 based on factors that include the impact they had on Canada and Canadians, the extent of the area affected, economic effects and longevity as a top news story.

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The November windstorms that hit southern Alberta caused at least $200 million in insured damage, said the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC).

The estimate comes from Property Claim Services Canada (PCS-Canada), a service that tracks insured losses arising from catastrophic events in Canada. Data collected by PCS-Canada confirms that thousands of claims have been filed for damage to homes, cars and businesses in the wake of the storm.

“Thankfully, there were no serious injuries, and insurance should cover most of the damage,” said Doug Noble, IBC’s Alberta Vice-President. “Following the storm, IBC told affected consumers to contact their insurance representatives as soon as possible to start the claims process.”

He added, “There is no doubt that we are seeing more and more the impact of severe weather in Alberta.”

Noble points to a summer 2011 storm that brought golf-ball-sized hail to Calgary and parts of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Insured damages from that storm were $185 million. In the summer of 2010, another Alberta storm cost $500 million in insured damages, more than the previous summer’s windstorms that caused $360 million in insured damages. Fires that destroyed much of Slave Lake in May of this year amounted to more than $700 million in insured damage, making it the second costliest insured disaster in Canadian history (after the ice storm that hit Quebec and Ontario in 1998, which cost over $1.8 billion).

“Following each of these disasters, insurers were there to help Albertans repair and recover,” remarked Noble.

Over the past three years, Alberta insurers have paid out approximately $2 billion in damages resulting from 5 disasters.

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An estimated 14,000 deaths in the United States have been linked to the radioactive fallout from the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear reactors, says a new article in the December 2011 edition of the International Journal of Health Services.

Authors Joseph Mangano and Janette Sherman say that their estimate of 14,000 excess U.S. deaths in the 14 weeks after the Fukushima meltdowns is comparable to the 16,500 excess deaths in the 17 weeks following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. The authors say the rise in reported deaths after Fukushima was largest among U.S. infants under the age of one: the 2010-2011 increase for infant deaths in the spring was 1.8 percent, compared to a decrease of 8.37 percent in the preceding 14 weeks.

The meltdowns struck four reactors at Fukushima following March 11, 2011’s devastating earthquake. Scientists soon detected a plume of toxic fallout over the United States. Subsequent measurements by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found levels of radiation in air, water, and milk hundreds of times above normal across the U.S.  The highest detected levels of Iodine-131 in precipitation in the U.S. were as follows (normal is about 2 picocuries I-131 per liter of water):  Boise, ID (390); Kansas City (200); Salt Lake City (190); Jacksonville, FL (150); Olympia, WA (125); and Boston, MA (92).

Epidemiologist Joseph Mangano, MPH MBA, said: “This study of Fukushima health hazards is the first to be published in a scientific journal.  It raises concerns, and strongly suggests that health studies continue, to understand the true impact of Fukushima in Japan and around the world.  Findings are important to the current debate of whether to build new reactors, and how long to keep aging ones in operation.”

Mangano is executive director, Radiation and Public Health Project, and the author of 27 peer-reviewed medical journal articles and letters.

Internist and toxicologist Janette Sherman, MD, said: “Based on our continuing research, the actual death count here may be as high as 18,000, with influenza and pneumonia, which were up five-fold in the period in question as a cause of death. Deaths are seen across all ages, but we continue to find that infants are hardest hit because their tissues are rapidly multiplying, they have undeveloped immune systems, and the doses of radioisotopes are proportionally greater than for adults.”

Dr. Sherman is an adjunct professor, Western Michigan University, and contributing editor of “Chernobyl – Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment” published by the NY Academy of Sciences in 2009, and author of “Chemical Exposure and Disease and Life’s Delicate Balance – Causes and Prevention of Breast Cancer.”

To read the full article, click here. (PDF)

You might also be interested in: Radiation in Japanese milk, spinach raises supply chain issues

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As 2011 draws to a close, insurers around the globe are hoping the worst will soon be over. According to preliminary estimates from Swiss Re’s sigma team, 2011 will be the year with the highest catastrophe-related economic losses in history, at $350 billion. This year would have been the costliest year even for the insurance industry if Japan had been more fully insured.

The figures released on December 16 found that total insured losses for the global insurance industry from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters reached USD $108 billion in 2011. This is more than double the figure of USD $48 billion in 2010. Claims from natural catastrophes alone reached USD $103 billion in 2011, compared to only USD $43 billion in 2010. The $350 billion in total losses eclipses 2010’s estimate of $226 billion.

Kurt Karl, Swiss Re’s Chief Economist, says: “2011 is going down as another year of very tragic and costly earthquakes. Unfortunately earthquake insurance coverage is still quite low, even in some industrialized countries with high seismic risk, like Japan. So on top of people losing their loved ones, societies are faced with enormous financial losses that have to be borne by either corporations, relief organizations or governments and, ultimately, taxpayers.

With approximately USD $108 billion in insured catastrophe losses, 2011 ranks as nearly the most expensive year for the insurance industry according to sigma records, second only to 2005 (USD 123 billion). Moderate hurricane losses have kept costs lower than in 2005, the year when hurricanes Katrina, Wilma and Rita alone caused claims of over USD $100 billion.

At more than USD $47 billion, earthquake-insured claims for 2011 are the highest ever recorded. Japan’s earthquake was the largest known – in terms of magnitude – to have ever hit the country, costing the insurance industry an estimated USD 35 billion. However, the insured losses were only a fraction of the total losses. Estimated to be at least USD 210 billion, the total economic losses are likely to be much higher once damage to nuclear facilities and disruption to worldwide supply chains are included. By way of comparison, the earthquake which hit New Zealand in February caused economic losses of USD 15 billion. However, thanks to high earthquake insurance penetration rates, particularly in residential properties, the insurance industry will pay most of the losses, said Swiss Re.

The most costly insured catastrophe losses in 2011 / Swiss Re

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The United States has been hit hard with weather disasters in 2011. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that already this year, there have been 12 billion-dollar weather disasters, breaking the previous record of nine in 2008. This year’s twelve $1 billion+ disasters have caused about $52 billion in damages. The twelve disasters alone resulted in the tragic loss of 646 lives, with the National Weather Service reporting over 1,000 deaths across all weather categories for the year.

Billion dollar weather/climate disasters 1980 - November 2011 / NOAA (Click to enlarge)

NOAA had previously only 10 events were reported but damages from wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona and tornadoes in the Midwest and Southeast have recently exceeded the $1 billion threshold.

NOAA continues to collect and assess data regarding several other extreme events that occurred this year including the pre-Halloween winter storm that impacted the Northeast and the wind/flood damage from Tropical Storm Lee. Currently, these events are not over the $1B threshold using the available data.

The 12 billion-dollar disasters of 2011 are:

• Texas, New Mexico, Arizona Wildfires Spring-Fall 2011 Continued drought conditions and periods of extreme heat provided conditions favorable for a series of historic wildfires across Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. The Bastrop Fire in Texas was the most destructive fire in Texas history destroying over 1,500 homes. The Wallow Fire consumed over 500,000 acres in Arizona making it the largest on record in Arizona. The Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico was also the state’s largest wildfire on record scorching over 150,000 acres while threatening the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Over 3 million acres have burned across Texas this wildfire season. Total damage in Texas alone due to loss of property, timber and agriculture exceed $750 million. Losses for wildfire activity across all three states exceeds $1.0 billion; at least 5 U.S. deaths.
• Hurricane Irene, August 20-29, 2011 Minimal Category 1 hurricane makes landfall over coastal NC and moved northward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast (NC, VA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT) causing torrential rainfall and flooding across the Northeast. Wind damage in coastal NC, VA, and MD was moderate with considerable damage resulting from falling trees and power lines, while flooding caused extensive flood damage across NJ, NY, and VT. Over seven million homes and businesses lost power during the storm. Numerous tornadoes were also reported in several states further adding to the damage. Over $7.3 billion in damages/costs; at least 45 deaths.
• Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011 Melting of an above-average snow pack across the Northern Rocky Mountains combined with above-average precipitation caused the Missouri and Souris Rivers to swell beyond their banks across the Upper Midwest (MT, ND, SD, NE, IA, KS, MO). An estimated 11,000 people were forced to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to the record high water level of the Souris River, where 4,000 homes were flooded. Numerous levees were breached along the Missouri River, flooding thousands of acres of farmland. Estimated losses exceed $2.0 billion. The flooding also stretched into the Canadian Prairies, where property and agriculture losses were expected to surpass $1.0 billion; at least 5 U.S. deaths.
• Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011 Persistent rainfall (nearly 300 percent normal precipitation amounts in the Ohio Valley) combined with melting snowpack caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Estimated economic loss ranges from $3.0-4.0 billion; at least 2 deaths. Below are more detailed stats, which are still preliminary: $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas; $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee; $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi; $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri’s Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway; $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana; at least 7 deaths.
• Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Fall, 2011 Drought and heatwave conditions created major impacts across Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, a majority of range and pastures were classified in ‘very poor’ condition for much of the 2011 crop growing season. The total direct losses to crops, livestock and timber approach $10.0 billion; both direct and total economic losses will rise as the drought continues.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes and Severe Weather June 18-22, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central states (OK, TX, KS, NE, MO, IA, IL) with an estimated 81 tornadoes. Additional wind and hail damage across the Southeast (TN, GA, NC, SC). Over $1.0 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $1.3 billion and at least 3 deaths.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (MO, TX, OK, KS, AR, GA, TN, VA, KY, IN, IL, OH, WI, MN, PA) with an estimated 180 tornadoes and at least 177 deaths. Notably, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, MO resulting in at least 160 deaths, making it the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950. Over $6.5 billion insured losses for event; total losses greater than $9.1 billion; 177 deaths.
• Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (AL, AR, LA, MS, GA, TN, VA, KY, IL, MO, OH, TX, OK) with an estimated 343 tornadoes and 321 deaths. Of those fatalities, 240 occurred in Alabama. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak, an EF-5, hit northern Alabama, killing 78 people. Several major metropolitan areas were directly impacted by strong tornadoes including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the estimated damage costs to soar. Over $7.3 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $10.2 billion; 321 deaths.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (OK, TX, AR, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, VA, PA) with an estimated 177 tornadoes. Despite the large overall number of tornadoes, few were classified as intense, with just 14 EF-3, and no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes identified. Over $1.4 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.1 billion; 38 deaths [22 of which were in North Carolina].
• Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (NC, SC, TN, AL, TX, OK, KS, IA, WI) with an estimated 59 tornadoes. Over $1.5 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, 0 deaths.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (KS, MO, IA, IL, WI, KY, GA, TN, NC, SC) with an estimated 46 tornadoes. Over $2.0 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.8 billion; 9 deaths.
• Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3, 2011 A large winter storm impacting many central, eastern and northeastern states. The city of Chicago was brought to a virtual standstill as between 1 and 2 feet of snow fell over the area. Insured losses greater than $1.0 billion; total losses greater than $1.8 billion; 36 deaths.

You might also be interested in: 2011 will be the year with the highest insured earthquake losses in history

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The first nine months of 2011 have been costly for U.S. property and casualty insurers. A.M. Best’s estimates for catastrophe-related losses experienced by the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) industry show that losses so far have nearly doubled total year-end 2010 losses.

The estimated total net pretax accident-year catastrophe-related losses during the first nine months of 2011 were $38.6 billion, up $22.5 billion, or 140%, from an estimated $16.1 billion reported during the same period a year ago. Total net pretax accident year catastrophe-related losses in 2010, according to A.M. Best, were an estimated $19.6 billion.

A.M. Best said it believes the overall industry has the capital to effectively absorb the losses, but notes that impact from natural catastrophes during the first nine months of the year is material to the industry from an earnings perspective

The briefing can be read online. (PDF)

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Recent rampant flooding in Thailand – losses for which are the country’s highest ever from natural disasters – has underscored a significant increase in weather-related disasters in Asia Pacific. Munich Re’s natural catastrophe database – NatCatSERVICE – shows that weather-related catastrophes have more than tripled over the last 30 years. In China alone, weather-related disasters have quadrupled since 1980.

Munich Re says that a burgeoning population, urbanization and increasing wealth means economic losses from these disasters will also continue to rise. Insurance density remains low in much of the region, with about six percent of natural catastrophe losses insured in the last 30 years.

“Year to date, the region has borne the brunt of natural catastrophe losses,’ said the insurer. “Eighty percent of all economic losses from natural disasters in the first nine months occurred in Asia Pacific. With the earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan, the floods and cyclone in Australia, and flooding across many countries in Central and South East Asia, the economic losses in the region came to US$ 259bn in the first nine months of 2011, around US$ 52bn of which was insured.” Economic losses worldwide from natural disasters amounted to $310 billion for the same three months.

Munich Re’s data showed that over the last 30 years, Asia Pacific has experienced more than 50 percent of all fatalities from natural catastrophes, almost 40 percent of all economic losses but less than 9 percent of the insured losses.

This shows the urgent need for wider natural catastrophe insurance coverage. This can be met through a variety of measures, from traditional insurance and reinsurance, to public-private partnerships or pooling of natural catastrophe risks nationwide, said the insurer.

“Such public-private partnership solutions can provide durable economic stability to societies and government budgets by offering significant financial relief when disaster hits, immediate liquidity to governments and citizens, assistance in balancing government budgets and help with risk prevention and post-disaster management”, commented Ludger Arnoldussen, member of Munich Re’s Board of Management.

You might also be interested in: Economic growth, rising property values increase cost of natural catastrophe claims 

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Flooding has inundated much of Thailand for three full months and record levels of floodwater have entered the capital of Bangkok. The flooding has impacted 64 of Thailand’s 77 provinces, affecting more than 9.9 million people with at least 427 reported dead. In its latest Monthly Cat Recap report published by Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield, the global reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor of Aon Corporation said preliminary economic losses have been listed at THB300 billion (USD $9.8 billion), with insured losses already estimated at more than THB140 billion (USD $4.6 billion). Assessments remain ongoing as approximately 3.3 million homes and nearly 15,000 manufacturing and industrial plants have sustained various levels of inundation.

“Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, flooding persisted in parts of Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, killing at least 342 people,” said Aon Benfield. “More than 480,000 homes were destroyed or severely damaged as extensive flooding caused substantial inundation to crops. Total combined economic losses are expected to be over USD766 million.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm 02B brought excessive rains to Myanmar, resulting in flash flooding and overflowing rivers that killed at least 215 people.”

Steve Jakubowski, President of Impact Forecasting, said: “Asia continues to suffer the consequences of extreme natural disaster events in 2011, and the recovery efforts for the ongoing flood crisis in Thailand particularly will be protracted and extensive. Until the floods fully begin to recede, there will remain some uncertainty as to the overall economic impact felt throughout the country. Regardless, early indications suggest this is a historic event in Thailand. The prolonged, extensive flooding is another natural disaster event for a country which has dealt with many over the years, particularly the 2004 tsunami.”

To view the full October Cat Recap report, click here. (PDF)

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The Alberta government says it believes arson was behind a wildfire that ravaged the town of Slave Lake last spring.

Sustainable Resource Development Minister Frank Oberle says the province’s investigation files have been turned over to the RCMP.

Oberle says the force will determine whether a criminal investigation is needed.

The provincial investigation took more than five months.

“Our investigation took the time required to protect, collect, analyze and document evidence to the rigorous standards required for preparation in a court of law,” Oberle said.

Deputy Commissioner Dale McGowan, commanding officer of the Alberta RCMP, said investigators with the serious crimes branch in Edmonton are conducting the review and will have control of any subsequent investigation.

He could not say how long that will take.

“The RCMP has a very keen understanding of the devastation caused by this fire,” said McGowan. “I want to reassure the citizens of Alberta that a thorough review of the (Sustainable Resources) report is a matter of high priority for the RCMP.”

Slave Lake is still struggling to get back on its feet after the mid-May forest fire that was whipped by 100-km/h winds and engulfed one-third of the community. It torched 400 homes and businesses and left 2,000 people homeless.

Total damage was pegged at $700 million, which insurance adjusters estimate makes it the second-costliest disaster next to the Quebec-Ontario ice storm of 1998, which cost about $1.8 billion.

The fire forced all 7,000 residents of the town, 250 kilometres northwest of Edmonton, to leave for two weeks as fire crews completed their salvage work and police secured the area.

No one was hurt, but a fire-fighting helicopter pilot crashed on Lesser Slave Lake and died. There were 1,400 firefighters deployed along with 170 helicopters and tankers.

Images of entire neighbourhoods razed to ash, homes reduced to charred cement foundations, were beamed around the world. In July, Prince William and his wife Kate made an impromptu visit during their cross-Canada tour to show support.

The aftermath raised questions over how the evacuation was carried out. Residents wanted to know why they were not given ample warning to leave. Some who left on their own were forced to turn around when roads were closed.

Days after the fire, the Alberta Emergency Management Agency, said it did not recommend an evacuation, then later reversed its position and said it had directed Mayor Karina Pillay-Kinnee to do so.

Pillay-Kinnee said the province ordered the evacuation after 6 p.m. on that fateful Sunday, but by then heavy smoke had closed the access roads out of town.

Municipalities are responsible for ordering evacuations but are dependent on information and fire updates from the province.

Communities around Slave Lake had been evacuated a day earlier, but town residents were told online and by radio that they were safe – even as fire began destroying the town.

The province delivered almost $300 million in aid, including millions for modular homes for residents who lost everything. Money was also delivered to surrounding communities that set up evacuation centres.

In August, the province announced an independent review of how well it fought the fire and on the overall effectiveness of its fire management programs. It is led by Bill Sweeney, a one-time RCMP senior deputy commissioner.

You might also be interested in: Insurers can learn from Slave Lake fires, says Intact Insurance President 

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There’s long been talk about how “The Big One” is due to strike Vancouver and other parts of the Pacific Northwest. A recent whitepaper from catastrophe modeler EQECAT says while the Cascadia subduction zone converges half as fast as tectonic plates in Chile or Japan, it does have a history of generating magnitude 9 earthquakes.

“The time interval between large Cascadia events has varied between 200 and 1,000 years,” said the paper. “The most recent M9 earthquake, dating from 1700, was deduced from tsunami records in Japan and carbon-dating of trees that drowned from inundation.”

A magnitude 9 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone would affect the cities of Vancouver, BC, Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR, and a population exceeding 10 million. Insured losses could approach $100 billion, with about 20 percent of losses occurring in each of the cities of Seattle and Vancouver, said EQECAT. Total economic damage could exceed $400 billion, the same magnitude of losses from a hypothetical M8 on the southern San Andreas Fault in California.

The latest white paper – Global Clustering of Giant Earthquakes: A Revolution in Earthquake Risk Management (PDF) – examines the cyclical nature of earthquakes over time.

“The forefront of earthquake science now shows that “giant” earthquakes, once assumed to strike randomly with time, actually occur in clusters,” wrote author Kate Stillwell in the paper. “This key understanding, that probabilities of the world’s largest earthquakes are cyclical rather than uniform over time, will have far-reaching implications for the insurance industry’s management of earthquake risk. In particular, strategies and decisions for underwriting and pricing that are driven by tail risk need to be reconsidered.

The paper points to the current global cluster of earthquakes exceeding magnitude (M) 8.5. Four earthquakes exceeding M8.5 have occurred since 2004 (Indonesia M9.1, 2004 and M8.6, 2005; Chile M8.8, 2010; Japan M9.0, 2011). The previous cluster, from 1950 to 1965, witnessed six events between M8.6 and M9.5. Between the two clusters, no earthquake exceeding M8.5 occurred anywhere on the globe. The random chance of such clustering is less than 1 percent, it noted.

The reality of earthquake clustering could dramatically alter how re/insurers allocate capital to support earthquake exposure, said EQECAT. The multi-decadal time span of clusters makes it possible to optimize capital accordingly. Presuming that capital adequacy reserves are maintained to a specific recurrence probability, the chosen strategy would depend on our current position within the cluster. An instructive gauge of this position may be global seismic moment, a measure of energy release: the cumulative seismic moment released since 2004 now stands at one third that of the previous 15-year cluster.

You might also be interested in: The ten costliest world earthquakes and tsunamis by insured losses 

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An unusually early and powerful nor’easter dumped wet, heavy snow Saturday from the mid-Atlantic to New England, toppling leafy trees and power lines and knocking out electricity to more than 2 million homes and businesses.

Communities inland were getting hit hardest, with eastern Pennsylvania serving as the bull’s-eye for the storm. West Milford, N.J., about 45 miles northwest of New York City, had received 15.5 inches of snow by Saturday night, while Plainfield, Mass., had gotten 14.3 inches. New York City’s Central Park set a record for both the date and the month of October with 1.3 inches of snow.

More than 2.3 million customers lost power from Maryland north through Massachusetts, and utilities were bringing in crews from other states to help restore it. More than half a million residents in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut were without power, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. By late Saturday, the storm had vacated most of Pennsylvania and was tracking northeast.

Throughout the region, officials had warned that the early storm would bring sticky snow on the heels of the week’s warmer weather and could create dangerous conditions. New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts declared states of emergencies, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency for 13 counties. At least three deaths have been blamed on the storm.

“It’s a little startling. I mean, it’s only October,” said Craig Brodur, who was playing keno with a friend at Northampton Convenience in western Massachusetts, which had received about 4 inches of snow by Saturday night.

And the storm was expected to worsen as it swept north. The heaviest snowfall was forecast for later in the day into Sunday in the Massachusetts Berkshires, the Litchfield Hills in northwestern Connecticut, southwestern New Hampshire and the southern Green Mountains. Wind gusts of up to 55 mph were predicted especially along coastal areas.

Some said that even though they knew a storm was coming, the severity caught them by surprise.

“This is absolutely a lot more snow than I expected to see today. I can’t believe it’s not even Halloween and it’s snowing already,” Carole Shepherd of Washington Township, N.J., said after shovelling her driveway.

The storm disrupted travel along the Eastern Seaboard. Philadelphia International Airport, Newark Liberty International Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport all had hourslong delays Saturday. Amtrak suspended service between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Pa., and commuter trains in Connecticut and New York were delayed or suspended because of downed trees and signal problems.

Residents were urged to avoid travel altogether. Speed limits were reduced on bridges between New Jersey and Pennsylvania. A few roads closed because of accidents and downed trees and power lines, and more were expected, said Sean Brown, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation.

The storm came on a busy weekend for many, with trick-or-treaters going door-to-door in search of Halloween booty, hunting season opening in some states and a full slate of college and pro football scheduled.

But the snow didn’t deter the travel plans of Dave Baker, who’s been going to Penn State football games for 45 years and made the 200-mile drive from Warminster, outside Philadelphia. He merely adjusted his packing list: Out went the breakfast fixings – his group ate early at a restaurant rather than at the tailgate –  in stayed the burgers and hot dogs. And the cold came in handy.

“I didn’t have to buy as much ice for the beer,” he said.

Elsewhere outside the stadium, 11-year-old Cody Carnes of Pittsburgh made a large snowball as he sweated underneath five layers of clothes _ a rain slicker, coat, sweatshirt, T-shirt and thermal. Another fan wore a foam Donkey Kong costume headpiece as he walked to a tailgate.

“It keeps my head nice and warm,” explained Matt Langston, 25, a graduate student from Harrisburg.

In eastern Pennsylvania, snow caused widespread problems. It toppled trees and a few power lines and led to minor traffic accidents, according to dispatchers. Allentown, expected to get 4 to 8 inches, is likely to break the city’s October record of 2.2 inches set on Halloween in 1925.

Philadelphia was seeing mostly rain, but what snow fell coated downtown roofs in white. The city was expected to get 1 to 3 inches, its first measurable October snow since 1979, with a bit more in some suburbs, meteorologist Mitchell Gaines said.

The last major widespread snowstorm to hit Pennsylvania this early was in 1972, said John LaCorte, a National Weather Service meteorologist in State College.

In southeastern Pennsylvania, an 84-year-old man was killed when a snow-laden tree fell on his home while he was napping in his recliner. Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy says one person died in a Colchester traffic accident that he blamed on slippery conditions.

In Massachusetts, a 20-year-old man died in Springfield after being electrocuted by a power line downed by high winds and wet, heavy snow. Capt. William Collins says the man stopped when he saw police and firefighters examining downed wires and stepped in the wrong place.

Parts of New York saw a mix of snow, rain and slush that made for sheer misery at the Occupy Wall Street encampment in New York City, where drenched protesters hunkered down in tents and under tarps as the plaza filled with rainwater and melted snow.

Technically, tents are banned in the park, but protesters say authorities have been looking the other way, even despite a crackdown on generators that were keeping them warm.

“I want to thank the New York Police Department,”’ said 32-year-old protester Sam McBee, decked out in a yellow slicker and rain pants. “We’re not supposed to have tents. We’re not supposed to have sleeping bags. You go to Atlanta, they don’t have it. You go to Oakland, you don’t have it. And we got it.”

October snowfall is rare in New York, and Saturday marked just the fourth October day with measurable snowfall in Central Park since record-keeping began 135 years ago, the National Weather Service said.

Along the coast and in such cities as Boston, relatively warm water temperatures could keep the snowfall totals much lower, meteorologist Bill Simpson said, with 1 to 3 inches of snowfall forecast along the I-95 corridor. Washington received a trace of snow, tying a record for the date set in 1925.

The heaviest snow in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine was set to fall overnight. Parts of southern Vermont could receive more than a foot.

The first measurable snow in New England usually falls in early December, and normal highs for late October are in the mid-50s.

But not everyone was lamenting the unofficial arrival of winter.

Two Vermont ski resorts, Killington and Mount Snow, started the ski season early by opening one trail each over the weekend, thanks to the recent snow and cold. Maine’s Sunday River ski resort also opened for the weekend.

In State College, 14-year-old Mac Charvala and his brother Will, 10, of South Orange, N.J., were using new body boards to slide along an inch of slushy snow covering a parking lot.

“We’ve never been to a snow game before,”’ said their father, Mike. “It’s an adventure. If you don’t want to have fun, stay home.”

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Floods are the most common natural catastrophe worldwide but a new paper from Allianz indicates that the destructive power of water is often underestimated.

“Risk awareness of natural catastrophes is not sufficient. This also means that people often do not take enough precautions,” said Clement B. Booth, member of the Allianz SE Board of Management

Flooding is a common occurrence in much of the world. Earlier this year, China and Pakistan dealt with floods while parts of Thailand are currently underwater. In 2010, the international disaster database EM-DAT counted roughly 400 natural catastrophes with at least 100 people affected or 10 deaths. Nearly half of those catastrophes were floods (182 cases), affecting some 179 million people all over the world.

The causes were mostly man-made, said Allianz, whether through climate change or massive interference in the natural flow of rivers and flood plains greatly aggravated flood risks.

“More and more natural drainage areas are being sealed off, for instance by road-building. On top of that, ever more housing developments are going in near rivers. Both of these factors add up to floods with massive economic and humanitarian effects,” says Markus Stowasser, an expert on the Cat Research & Development Team at Allianz SE Reinsurance.

People are still very reluctant to invest in prevention. As a result, floods cause not only a lot of damage to buildings but also to the objects in them. And damage is not just limited to river-front property. Heavy rains can result in flooding everywhere.

Flood insurance itself is a relatively simple step to take that is often overlooked. “Only few people live in areas where insurance against natural hazards and flooding isn’t at all possible,” says Booth.

The full report can be read online. (PDF)

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Canada’s National Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction  will better protect Canadians in the event of a disaster.

Originally launched in 2010, the National Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction also allows stakeholders from across the public sector, the private sector, academia, and non-governmental organizations to:

• Share ideas and action in order to address disaster risk reduction issues
• Work towards the better integration of disaster risk reduction in national emergency management policies, plans and programs, and
• Strengthen stakeholder relationships to better address gaps in the prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery from disasters.

“Natural disasters, such as floods and severe weather can happen almost anywhere in Canada and it is important we do everything possible to reduce the risks before such events occur,” said Minister Toews in a statement. “Through the National Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction, we are ensuring a comprehensive, coordinated approach to emergency preparedness and disaster recovery. Everyone benefits when governments, non-government organizations, academia, and the private sector work together toward the same goal – the safety and security of Canadian families.”

In January 2005, 168 Governments, including Canada, adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) — a non-binding international guidance tool which seeks to reduce the human, social, economic and environmental costs of disasters. Minister Toews said the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction is part of Canada’s commitment to deliver on the HFA.

You might also be interested in: First-half losses make 2011 costliest year for natural disasters 

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Insured losses from October 23’s magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Eastern Turkey is estimated to have caused insured losses between USD $100 and $200 million, said catastrophe modeler EQECAT.

Total economic damage from this event is likely to reach the low single-digit billions.

“Total economic damage is estimated at approximately one-tenth that from the 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake in western Turkey and 10 times the damage from the 2010 M6.1 earthquake in eastern Turkey,” EQECAT said in an update.

Hundreds of fatalities have officially been reported, most of which were caused primarily by building collapses. Mid-rise, non-ductile reinforced concrete frame residential construction is typical among buildings already reported to have collapsed, and will continue to account for the largest portion of damage. These buildings typically contain heavy, unreinforced hollow clay tile used as infill walls. This is the same type of building that experienced a significant number of collapses in the 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake in western Turkey.

EQECAT noted that insured losses will be incurred primarily to the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP), a national program of compulsory earthquake insurance for residential buildings. The TCIP, initiated in 2000, is intended to minimize the rebuilding cost to the central government, and is backed primarily by international reinsurers. Limits per policy are approximately $30,000 USD, with deductibles commonly 2%.

Estimates of TCIP penetration hover around 20%, and take-up rates in the east are less than this national average. EQECAT’s insured loss estimate is based on much of the damage having struck residential buildings.

Click here to see a sample of a TCIP Compulsory Earthquake Insurance Policy. 

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