1458
1458: Evidence of probability reasoning began after underwriters started to be able to determine the various risks to be considered in marine insurance. Benedetto Cotrugli, (1416-1469) one of the first to implement the double entry system of accounting, was one of the first to list these risks. In his book he wrote, [underwriters] “must recall that it is necessary to gather all the news that come from the sea and to pay special attention to them, to constantly ask for and inquire on pirates and evil people, wars, truces, reprisals and all the thing that may perturbe the sea. They must keep navigation maps on their desk and have a good knowledge of the seaports and the beaches, of the distance from one place to another, and they must take into account the condition of the captains, of the insured merchants, and of the vessels, and they must consider the merchandise, since all these elements are required.”




