Swap These Financial Stocks to Reduce Risk

Victoria Hetherington

Rising household debt, falling house prices, slowing credit applications – it’s a wonder anyone is still buying shares in Canada’s Big Six banks. Indeed, from financing weed suppliers to exposing itself to a potentially volatile American market, big Bay Street bankers may be too rich by half for the low-risk appetites of domestic investors looking to them for stability.

Take Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS)(NYSE:BNS), with its exposure to the U.S. economy, for instance. Scotiabank does substantial business south of the border, and as such may have left itself vulnerable to the potential of a widespread market downturn in the U.S. Even with this leg up, though, it still managed to underperform the Canadian banking industry as well as the TSX index for the past year.

More shares have been bought than sold by Bank of Nova Scotia insiders in the past three months, though not in vastly significant volumes. The usual boxes are ticked by its value, indicating P/E of 10.6 times earnings and P/B of 1.4 times book, while a stable dividend yield of 4.88% is augmented by a good-for-a-bank-stock 6.6% expected annual growth in earnings.

Again, overexposure to the United States market is an issue with Bank of Montreal(TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO). Specifically, this comes from BMO Harris Bank, a large personal and commercial bank; BMO Private Bank, which offers wealth management across the U.S.; plus BMO Capital Markets, an investment and corporate banking arm of the parent banker.

With year-on-year returns of 8.1%, BMO outperformed the industry and the market, and as such seems a safe bet on the face of it. Its one-year past earnings growth of 24.6% shows rapid recent improvement given its five-year average growth rate of 6.1%. Meanwhile, a P/E of 11.3 times earnings and P/B of 1.5 times book show near-market valuation, and a dividend yield of 3.9% is matched with a 3.6% expected annual growth in earnings.

Try the “insulated” alternatives

An example of domestic alternative on the TSX index would be Laurentian Bank of Canada (TSX:LB). Although its one-year past earnings dropped by 4.2%, a five-year average past earnings growth of 14.3% shows overall positivity, while a P/E of 9 times earnings and P/B of 0.8 times book illustrate Laurentian Bank of Canada’s characteristic good value. A dividend yield of 6.3% coupled with a 9.2% expected annual growth in earnings gives the Big Six a run for their money.

Alternatively, Manulife Finanical (TSX:MFC)(NYSE:MFC) offers a way to stick with financials but ditch the banks. This ever-popular insurance stock was up 2.33% in the last five days at the time of writing and is very attractive in term of value at the moment, with a P/E of 10.3 times earnings and P/B of 1.1 times book.

Manulife Financial’s 3.5% year-on-year returns managed to beat the Canadian insurance industry, but just missed out on walloping the TSX index’s 4.2%. In terms of the company’s track record, its one-year past earnings growth of 138.1% eclipsed the market and its industry, though its five-year average is sadly negative. Its balance sheet is solid, however, with its level of debt reduced over the past five years from 60.2% to the current 41% today.

The bottom line

Sidestepping banks may be a shrewd move at the moment, with other forms of financials offering a more insulated route to a broader space. While more regionalized banks like Laurentian Bank of Canada are one option, stocks like Manulife Financial, with its dividend yield of 4.17% and 11.3% expected annual growth in earnings offer a similar but less risky play on the TSX index’s financial sector.

Two-thirds of Canadians enter 2019 worried about the economy

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Financial Planning Standards Council 

TORONTOJan. 21, 2019 /CNW/ – Two-thirds of Canadians enter 2019 worried about their financial fortunes, according to a recent economic poll. The Kitchen Table Forecast, a Leger poll of 1,515 Canadians, was conducted for non-profit organizations Financial Planning Standards Council (FPSC) and Credit Canada.

The survey sought to add consumer context to reports on slowing economic growth by asking Canadians about a series of “kitchen table” issues – the sort of daily financial concerns that confront people on a daily basis, such as bill payments and debt, cost of living, job security and bankruptcy. It comes on the heels of a global report by The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that suggests Canada is showing signs of a sharp decline in growth in 2019.

“Canadians are feeling stressed about their finances and are often at a loss to improve their situation,” said author, personal finance educator and FPSC’s Consumer Advocate, Kelley Keehn. “This hopelessness can cause people to do nothing, and possibly make their condition worse. Uncertainty about an ever-changing job market and economy only intensifies the average person’s confidence and ability to handle the ebb and flow that life inevitably presents.”

The “R word” – Four-in-10 Canadians feel economy will get worse in 2019
The report didn’t ask about the dreaded “R-word” (recession) specifically; however, four-in-10 Canadians (42%) feel that the economy will get worse in 2019 – while 36 per cent believe it will stay the same. Across the country, people aged 55-plus are significantly more likely than those under 55 to feel the economy will get worse in 2019 (47% vs. 39%). Meanwhile, Quebecers (at 46%) are more confident than the rest of Canadians (34%) that the economy will stay the same in 2019.

“It’s no surprise people over 55 are more pessimistic (or realistic) when it comes to our economy. This isn’t their first rodeo and they know the red flags,” says Credit Canada CEO, Laurie Campbell. “Insolvency rates were up by more than five per cent last fall, we’ve seen five interest rate hikes since mid-2017, and the cost of living continues to rise. If debt levels don’t come down and people don’t start to get serious about paying off their debt, it’s only a matter of time before we’re in major trouble. You can only bury your head in the sand for so long.”

Looking ahead – Daily financial concerns 
Respondents were also asked the question “Looking ahead into 2019, what are you most worried about?”  Overall, two-in-three Canadians (67%) say they have worries when forecasting their prospects for the year. While gender does not play a role, those under 55 are considerably more likely to be worried (76% vs. 52% for those over 55). Respondents with children under 18 are also more likely to have concerns (79% vs. 62% for those without children).

Here are the “kitchen table” issues that are keeping Canadians up at night:

  • 34 per cent are concerned that the increased cost of living will put them further in debt
  • One-in-four (23%) are concerned they won’t be able keep up with monthly payments
  • Also, one-in-four (23%) are concerned with their debt growing
  • 13 per cent are concerned about losing their job
  • 10 per cent are concerned about other bread-winners in their home losing their jobs
  • 14 per cent are concerned about an unaffordable increase in mortgage interest rates
  • Five per cent are concerned about going bankrupt

Alternatively, one-in-four Canadians (26%) were “not worried about anything” going into 2019.

How to recession-proof your life – tips from FPSC’s Consumer Advocate, Kelley Keehn

  1. Get your emergency fund established and funded.  Experts estimate three-to-six months of household income that’s safe and secure.
  2. Do a family net worth statement.  Know your situation and know where you may be leaving money on the table, like with an employer-funded pension plan or employer RRSP matching plan.
  3. Consider your insurance needs during times of high debt in the case of death, disability or job loss.
  4. Don’t panic – seek out expert assistance from a CFP® professional who can create a plan that protects your downside without adding to your already stretched bottom line.
  5. Take a hard look at ways to cut expenses or increase your income to increase your bottom line and help fund your emergency account.

How to recession proof your life – tips from Credit Canada CEO, Laurie Campbell

  1. Build (and stick to) a monthly budget to ensure you know exactly how much money is coming in, how much is going out, and how much is left over for financial goals. See where you can cut costs – for example, find cheaper cell phone and internet plans, gym memberships and better insurance rates.
  2. Contribute regularly to an emergency savings fund. Make regular contributions – even small amounts, such as $20, is a very positive step. Consider setting up automated savings through your bank.
  3. Pay down debt. Start with paying off the credit cards with the highest interest rates first, also known as the “avalanche” method for paying down debt. Credit Canada’s free Debt Calculator can help determine the best debt repayment strategy for each individual.
  4. Always remember that Credit Canada offers free, confidential, one-on-one counselling sessions with certified credit counsellors.

The full results of the Kitchen Table Forecast can be found on the FPSC and Credit Canada websites.

About Credit Canada 
Credit Canada is a not-for-profit credit counselling agency that provides free and confidential debt and credit counselling, personal debt consolidation and resolutions, as well as preventative counselling, educational seminars, and free tips and tools in the areas of budgeting, money management, and financial goal-setting. Credit Canada is Canada’sfirst and longest-standing credit counselling agency and a leader in financial wellness, helping Canadians successfully manage their debt since 1966. Please visit www.creditcanada.com for more information.

About Financial Planning Standards Council
A professional standards-setting and certification body working in the public interest, FPSC’s purpose is to drive value and instill confidence in financial planning. FPSC ensures those it certifies―Certified Financial Planner® professionals and FPSC Level 1® Certificants in Financial Planning―meet appropriate standards of competence and professionalism through rigorous requirements of education, examination, experience and ethics. There are approximately 18,500 financial planners in Canada who have met, and continue to meet, FPSC’s standards. More information is available at FPSC.ca and FinancialPlanningForCanadians.ca. Effective April 1, 2019, FPSC will become FP Canada™: a national professional body dedicated to advancing professional financial planning. Learn more at FPCanada.ca.

About the Kitchen Table Forecast
The survey of 1,515 Canadians was completed between January 4 and January 7, 2019, for Credit Canada and FPSC using Leger’s online panel. The margin of error for this study was +/-2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90%.

Websites

https://www.creditcanada.com/ 
http://www.financialplanningforcanadians.ca/   
http://www.kelleykeehn.com/

CFP® and Certified Financial Planner® are certification trademarks owned outside the U.S. by Financial Planning Standards Board Ltd. (FPSB). Financial Planning Standards Council is the marks licensing authority for the CFP marks in Canada, through agreement with FPSB. All other ® are registered trademarks of FPSC, unless indicated. © 2018 Financial Planning Standards Council. All rights reserved.

SOURCE Financial Planning Standards Council

When your parents die broke

By Liz Weston

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Blogger John Schmoll’s father left a financial mess when he died: a house that was worth far less than the mortgage, credit card bills in excess of $20,000 and debt collector s who insisted the son was legally obligated to pay what his father owed.

Fortunately, Schmoll knew better.

“I’ve been working in financial services for two decades,” says Schmoll, an Omaha, Nebraska, resident who was a stockbroker before starting his site, Frugal Rules. “I knew that I wasn’t responsible.”

Baby boomers are expected to transfer trillions to their heirs in coming years. But many people will inherit little more than a pile of bills.

Nearly half of seniors die owning less than $10,000 in financial assets, according to a 2012 study for the National Bureau of Economic Research. Meanwhile, debt among older Americans is soaring. It used to be relatively unusual to have a mortgage or credit card debt in retirement. Now, 23 per cent of those older than 75 have mortgages, a four-fold increase since 1989, and 26 per cent have credit card debt, a 159 per cent increase, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest data from the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances .

If your parents are among those likely to die in debt, here’s what you need to know.

*YOU (PROBABLY) AREN’T RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR DEBTS When people die, their debts don’t disappear. Those debts are now owed by their estates. Some estates don’t have enough assets (property, investments and cash) to pay all of the bills, so some of those bills just don’t get paid. Spouses may have the responsibility for certain debts, depending on state law, but survivors who aren’t spouses usually don’t have to pay what’s owed unless they co-signed for the debt or applied for credit together with the person who died.

What’s more, assets that pass directly to heirs often don’t have to be used to pay the estate’s debts. These assets can include “pay on death” bank accounts, life insurance policies, retirement plans and other accounts that name beneficiaries, as long as the beneficiary isn’t the estate.

“You take it and go home,” says Jennifer Sawday, an estate planning attorney in Long Beach, California.

*YOU NEED A LAWYER Some parents hope to avoid creditors or the costs of probate, which is the court process that typically follows a death, by adding a child’s name to a house deed or transferring the property entirely. Either of those moves can cause legal and tax consequences and should be discussed with a lawyer first. After a parent dies, the executor must follow state law in determining how limited funds are distributed and can be held personally responsible for mistakes. That makes consulting a lawyer a smart idea _ and the estate typically would pay the costs. (The costs of administering an estate are considered high-priority debts that are paid before other bills, such as credit cards.)

At his attorney’s advice, Schmoll sent letters to his dad’s creditors explaining the estate was insolvent, then formally closed the estate according to the probate laws of Montana, where his dad had lived.

A lawyer also can advise you how to proceed if a parent isn’t just insolvent, but also doesn’t have any assets at all. In that situation, there may not be a reason to open up a probate case and deal with collectors, Sawday says.

“Sometimes, I advise clients just to lay the person to rest and do nothing,” Sawday says. “Let a creditor handle it.”

*YOU NEED TO TAKE METICULOUS NOTES The financial lives of people in debt are often chaotic _ and sorting it all out can take time. As executor of his dad’s estate, Schmoll dealt with over a dozen collection agencies, utilities and lenders, often talking to multiple people about a single account. He kept a document where he tracked details such as the names of people he talked to, dates and times of the conversations, what was said and required follow-up actions as well as reference numbers for various accounts.

*YOU SHOULDN’T BELIEVE WHAT DEBT COLLECTORS TELL YOU Some collectors told Schmoll he had a moral obligation to pay his father’s debts, since the borrowed money might have been spent on the family. Schmoll knew they were trying to exploit his desire to do the right thing, and advises others in similar situations not to let debt collectors play on their emotions.

“Just don’t make a snap decision, because it’s very easy to say, ‘You know what? I need to think about it. Let me call you back,”’ Schmoll says.

_______

This column was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance website NerdWallet.

With Rising Rates, These Are the Best Insurance Options

With Rising Rates, These Are the Best Insurance Options

Ryan Goldsman | The Motley Fool

With two interest rate increases in the books for 2017, Canadians could be looking at a third increase before December 31.

Given this potential headwind, every investor will want to ask themselves where they can go to hide money in the event that borrowing costs continue to escalate, potentially slowing down major capital expenditures for many companies.

As most investors have already recognized the obvious benefactors of higher rates, such as banks and mortgage companies, the opportunities presented by companies that hold a large amount of short- to medium-term capital may not seem as obvious.

When considering Canada’s insurance companies, investors should remember that the capital taken in (known as float) needs to be put into short-term, highly liquid investments for when the money is needed to payout claims.

Leading the pack is Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX:MFC)(NYSE:MFC), which has one of the biggest balance sheets of any Canadian company. As of June 30, 2017, the company held assets of$725 billion, which now has the potential to bring in a greater amount of interest income over time.

The company, which trades at a price of less than $25 per share, offers investors a dividend yield of more than 3.25% and tangible book value of almost $22 per share. Clearly, the market is factoring in a rosy future for this company. The good news for investors is the high probability of a much better bottom line.

The second-biggest insurance company by market capitalization is Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX:GWO. At a 4.25% dividend yield, the company could potentially make investors very happy over the next year.

With the most consistent earnings over the past few years and a levered balance sheet, the company is in prime position to surpass expectations as time passes.

As the amount of shareholders’ equity has continued to increase over time, shareholders in Great-West Lifeco may benefit the most from rising rates, as the increase in retained earnings could be used to conduct a share buyback.

Last on the list are shares of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX:SLF)(NYSE:SLF. At 1.7 times tangible book value, there may already be high expectations priced into the share price.

Although the dividend-payout ratio remains relatively low, the total amount of shareholders’ equity has not increased substantially over the past few years. Assets, however, have increased alongside liabilities, leading to a bigger balance sheet.

With larger balance sheets than in previous years, Canada’s insurance industry may be the best positioned industry to grow revenues and earnings, and could return significant amounts of capital to shareholders over the next few years.

As an industry, the Canadian banks have done a fantastic job showing how to compete with one another while maximizing profits to shareholders. In the hope that the insurance industry will follow suit, investors can guard against rising rates by buying into the sector.

Consumers Rush to Lock in Mortgage Rates ahead of Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

The number of Canadians who applied for a fixed-rate mortgage in August saw a substantial spike, with 59.31% of users on the LowestRates.ca website opting for a fixed-rate mortgage over variable.

Historically, the majority of Canadians who shop for mortgage rates on LowestRates.ca opt for variable-rate mortgages. Since January 2014, 56.56% of users have gone variable, compared with 43.44% of those who go fixed. The shift in August is seen as a reaction to the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates. On July 12, the bank hiked rates by 25 basis points — the first upward move since 2010. Rates were again raised another quarter of a percent on September 6.

“It’s important for consumers not to panic,” said Justin Thouin, co-founder and CEO of LowestRates.ca. “Data over the past 30 years shows that Canadians have saved more money on interest by going with a variable rate, rather than a fixed-rate mortgage.”

“Yes, a BoC rate hike means your mortgage payments go up if you have a variable-rate mortgage. And this causes some Canadians to overreact and do anything they can to switch to a fixed-rate mortgage,” Thouin adds.  “Doing this might buy you peace of mind if the thought of rising interest rates keeps you up at night.  But based on the past 30 years, staying in a variable rate mortgage is still the right choice in the long run if your goal is to pay as little interest as possible.”

Understanding The Impact of Rate Change

If a consumer purchases a home for $750,000 (with a down payment of 10 per cent amortized over 25 years), at a five-year, variable rate of 1.95 per cent, they would have a total monthly mortgage interest payment of $1,096.88 (keep in mind, this does not include additional costs such as mortgage insurance, principal payment or property taxes).  If the Bank of Canada increases its overnight rate by 25 basis points, that homeowner’s monthly interest payment on their mortgage would be $1,237.50 — an increase of $140.62 per month.

That same homeowner using a fixed mortgage rate — the most competitive fixed product on LowestRates.ca last month was 2.63% — would have a total monthly mortgage interest payment of $1,479.38.  While they can lock in that rate for five years, they’re still spending $241.88 a month more in interest compared with the variable product even after variable rates go up. That’s $2,902.56 a year in increased costs!

“Analysts have a wide range of opinions as to how many additional increases the BoC will make over the next 18 months, but until there is a substantial increase, the impact will be not that extreme,” says Thouin.

About LowestRates.ca

Nearly half of Canadians lack a financial plan, putting their goals at risk

A new CIBC (TSX:CM) (NYSE: CM) poll finds that nearly half (46 per cent) of Canadians do not have a financial plan in place to reach their goals, despite many feeling concerned about their retirement years.

“While most of us have a fairly good sense of our financial goals, so many Canadians do not have a clear road map in place to achieve what they want today – and tomorrow,” says Sarah Widmeyer, Managing Director and Head of Wealth Strategies, CIBC. “Whether the goal is to eliminate debt, save more, or retire early, you can achieve success with a financial plan.”

Key poll findings include:

  • 54 per cent of Canadians surveyed have a financial plan, with
    • 64 per cent of them having a long-term plan that identifies their savings goals and the steps to achieve them;
    • And 36 per cent who describe it as only a budget they review regularly, a short-term plan or ‘other’.
  • 46 per cent of Canadians surveyed do not have a financial plan
    • with 42 per cent of them saying they ‘have a pretty good idea’ and don’t need to write it down.
  • When thinking about retirement, just over half (51 per cent) are most worried about increasing health care costs, 45 per cent are concerned about how to manage unexpected expenses, and 43 per cent worry that they won’t have enough money to live the life they want.

‘Life gets in the way’

According to previous CIBC polls, ‘paying down debt’ has been the top financial priority for Canadians for seven straight years, indicating few people are making headway on their goals.

“We all aim to have a sufficient nest egg for retirement and money to handle the unexpected, but everyday life has a tendency of getting in the way,” says Ms. Widmeyer. “By setting out a clear path to your goals, a financial plan can help you stay on track. It also gives you the confidence to manage surprises, so that setbacks don’t put your retirement dreams and other goals at risk.”

The poll finds that having a financial plan in place makes Canadians feel more confident in their ability to manage unexpected changes in their finances. Additionally, those who have a financial advisor (61 per cent) also feel better able to manage setbacks. The poll surveyed Canadians with household incomes above $100,000.

A financial plan and a budget are not the same: But both are important

The poll findings show that even among those who do have a financial plan, more than a third (36 per cent) appear to be confused about how it differs from a budget, pointing to a limited understanding of the full value and purpose of a financial plan.

“While budgeting and financial planning go hand-in-hand, a budget alone is insufficient in crafting the life you want in the future,” says Ms. Widmeyer. She adds that confusing a budget with a financial plan may leave Canadians ill-prepared.

Ms. Widmeyer describes a financial plan as a clear, written report detailing an individual’s personal goals, financial needs and priorities in areas such as income and expenses, taxes, mortgage planning, education needs, retirement, estate planning, and insurance. A financial plan also incorporates assumptions like inflation, the time to a goal and expected rates of return, which many may miss on their own, she adds.

“There are many things to consider depending on your life stage, income and lifestyle expectations,” says Ms. Widmeyer. “Is it better to pay down debt or save? Are you saving enough? Could you possibly retire earlier than you thought? These are some of the questions a financial plan can help you answer and where the real value of a plan lies.”

Tips to get started

For those who are unsure of where to start, Ms. Widmeyer offers these tips:

  1. Identify your short-term and long-term goals
  2. Take a detailed look at your budget
  3. Create a plan setting measurable and time-based goals
  4. Review your progress annually

“Now is the perfect time to speak to a financial advisor who can help you identify and prioritize your goals and set a plan to achieve them,” adds Widmeyer. “The keys to success are to have a plan in place, review your progress annually, and then make any changes as needed. This will keep you on track to achieve what’s important to you.”

A plan for ages

  • In your 20’s and 30’s – When you’re starting out, it’s important to manage debt effectively and keep an eye on savings. Taking advantage of the Home Buyer’s Plan can help you build a down payment for your first home, while saving through a TFSA could save your RRSP contribution room for years when you’re likely to earn a higher income. Read Paul and Andrea’s story.
  • In your 40’s and 50’s – For the sandwich generation, it’s all about balance. Competing priorities pull you in different directions, and can make it difficult to stay on track. Look for ways to maximize savings through Registered Education Savings Plans, and be sure to balance your portfolio to fit the right time horizon, risk tolerance and accurately forecast future cash flow. Read Xue and Mei-Lien’s story.
  • In your 60’s and beyond – For those at or nearing retirement, it’s important to understand your new income needs, lifestyle and plan for any unexpected health costs in order to set a clear course for the years ahead. Knowing the right time and amount to withdraw from Registered Retirement Income Funds to reduce tax liabilities and continue saving for later years, while discussing your estate can help protect your wealth and minimize taxes. Read Andrew and Jennifer’s story.

KEY POLL FINDINGS:

Percentage of Canadians surveyed with a financial plan detailing out financial decisions and activities for their household:

Yes,    

54%

No

46%

Top reasons Canadians surveyed without a financial plan feel they do not need one:

I have a pretty good idea of what I need to do and don’t need to write it down

42%

My situation is pretty simple and I don’t see the need for one

26%

Canadians’ surveyed top three most important goals for having a financial plan:

Saving for retirement

53%

Eliminating credit card or line of credit debt

38%

Paying off  their mortgage sooner

38%

Top retirement concerns among Canadians surveyed:

Increased health care costs

51%

Managing unexpected costs (e.g. health-related expenses, long-term care)

45%

Not having enough money to live the life I want

43%

Confidence of those with or without a financial plan in their ability to manage an unexpected life event or scenario:

Have a
financial
plan

Do not
have a financial
plan

Have a
financial
advisor

Do not
have a
financial
advisor

Someone in the household losing their job suddenly

70%

58%

69%

57%

A family illness or disability that left me or a family member unable to work for a few months

77%

72%

78%

68%

Medical expenses not covered by my insurance provider

77%

71%

78%

67%

A sudden, unexpected financial emergency (e.g. urgent home renovation, car repairs)

88%

80%

87%

80%

Divorce

51%

48%

52%

46%

Growing family

57%

59%

60%

55%

Financial Plan Poll Disclaimer:
From January 5 to 9, 2017, an online survey was conducted among 1,007 Canadian adults with a household income greater than $100,000 who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has a margin of error of +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

About CIBC
CIBC is a leading Canadian-based global financial institution with 11 million personal banking and business clients. Through our three major business units – Retail and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Capital Markets – CIBC offers a full range of products and services through its comprehensive electronic banking network, branches and offices across Canada with offices in the United States and around the world. Ongoing news releases and more information about CIBC can be found at www.cibc.com/ca/media-centre/ or by following on Twitter @CIBC, Facebook (www.facebook.com/CIBC) and Instagram @CIBCNow.

SOURCE CIBC – Consumer Research and Advice

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